This eventually compelled the generals to look further afield for new arms suppliers. Myanmar approached Russia, other East European countries and even North Korea.

Myanmar generals purchased Russian MiG-29s after a border clash with Thailand in February 2001 showed up the inadequacy of Myanmar’s China-made aircraft, such as the F-7 IIK, against Thailand’s US-made F-16 fighters.

Shortly after the border clash, the Tatmadaw purchased 12 MiG-29s in 2001. In 2009 it negotiated a further purchase of 20 MiG-29s. Then, the acquisition was reportedly Russia’s biggest fighter deal since Algeria scrapped an agreement to buy 34 MiG-29s.

The Tatmadaw also turned to Russia for military modernisation and training. This started before Min Aung Hlaing became Commander-in-Chief in 2011. Vice Senior-General Maung Aye, the second-in-command of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), made the overture with the consent of SPDC supremo Senior General Than Shwe, according to military and related sources.

The same retired major-general who divulged the Tatmadaw’s dissatisfaction with China also shared that both Tatmadaw generals – Than Shwe and Maung Aye – fought against the China-backed Communist Party of Burma. He added that they both understood “where the real external threat lay”.

AWKWARDNESS IN MYANMAR-CHINA RELATIONS

There has also been an awkwardness in the junta’s relations with China after the 2021 coup, underscored by China’s concerns to safeguard its economic interests in Myanmar. This may have persuaded the current crop of generals to recall their mentor Maung Aye’s idea of seeking a new partner and arms supplier in Russia.

Unlike other generals who had visited China since taking power, Min Aung Hlaing has not been to China since the coup. The junta has also rebuffed a Chinese request for Sun Guoxiang, its special envoy for Asian Affairs, to meet Aung San Suu Kyi.

ASTANA, Kazakhstan: President Vladimir Putin used a speech to Asian leaders on Thursday (Oct 13) to develop a theme that he has pressed more intensely as Russia’s military fortunes have waned: That Moscow is fighting the West to establish a fairer world.

With Western economic sanctions also tightening, Putin has shifted his emphasis from fighting alleged “fascists” in Kyiv to confronting a “collective West” that is arming Ukraine with the supposed aim of expanding its influence at Russia’s expense.

“The world is becoming truly multi-polar,” Putin said. “And Asia, where new centres of power are emerging, plays a significant, if not key, role in it.”

At a meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in the Kazakh capital Astana, Putin described the West as a neo-colonial power bent on stunting the development of the rest of the world and exploiting poorer countries.

“Like many of our partners in Asia, we believe a revision is needed of the global financial system, which has for decades allowed the self-proclaimed so-called ‘golden billion’, who redirected all capital flows and technologies to themselves to live largely at others’ expense,” Putin said.

The members of CICA have their own diverse agendas, however, and have also become more valuable to Russia as customers for the oil, gas and other commodities that it is finding hard to sell to the West.

The body includes several Central Asian ex-Soviet nations that regard Russia as their former colonial overlord – as well as China, India and some Arab and Southeast Asian nations, which have benefited from close trading ties with the West and Japan.

Kazakh authorities this month rejected a demand from Russia that they expel Ukraine’s ambassador, chiding Moscow for what they called an inappropriate tone between “equal strategic partners”.

The phrase “golden billion” became popular in Russian political discourse in the 1990s as part of a theory positing that Western nations had conspired to exploit the resources of others, above all Russia, while keeping them poor and brainwashing their populations.

The theory also supports Putin’s avowed aim of restoring Russia’s status of global power by opposing what he sees as a United States-led cabal.

Kyiv and the West deny any intention to threaten or diminish Russia, which they say is waging a war of imperialist aggression against Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday described the war in Ukraine as part of a Russian “crusade” against liberal democracy.

CALM DOWN, EVERYONE

Everyone probably needs to calm down a bit. The US may feel it has justifiable reasons to complain about India’s equivocation on Ukraine, but it would be wiser not to do so by transparently cosying up to Pakistan. Every now and then someone in Washington thinks it is time to reset relations with Islamabad, and within a decade their successors discover it was a terrible idea.

Meanwhile, we in India should also consider more carefully whether alienating the US and the West is really worth it. It won’t hurt us immediately, sure. Right now, India’s economy looks stable enough for the government to feel certain that the West needs us more than we need them.

But, if the next decade is to transform our economy and young Indians’ futures, we will need Western investment, technology and markets. If we are to secure ourselves against Pakistan and China, we will need Western weaponry, at least in the short term.

Perhaps Washington really wasn’t reminding New Delhi last week that two can play the game of balancing interests. We in India should nevertheless remember why we have, for more than a decade now, stressed “shared values” with the West. It’s a way of papering over temporary disagreements – one that isn’t available in a cold, transactional, “interests”-based relationship.

Over the coming decades, we will need the West even as we disagree with it. Sticking to our values may just be India’s real national interest.

SEOUL: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a birthday greeting to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, congratulating him for “crushing the challenges and threats of the United States”, the latest sign of deepening ties between the two countries.

As Russia’s isolation over its war in Ukraine has increased, it has seen increasing value in North Korea. For North Korea’s part, relations with Russia haven’t always been as warm as they were during the heady days of the Soviet Union, but now the country is reaping clear benefits from Moscow’s need for friends.

Here’s how North Korea-Russia relations began, and how they are becoming closer:

POLITICAL BACKING

Communist North Korea was formed in the early days of the Cold War with the backing of the Soviet Union. North Korea later battled the South and its US and United Nations allies to a stalemate in the 1950-1953 Korean War with extensive aid from China and the Soviet Union.

North Korea was heavily reliant on Soviet aid for decades, and when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s it helped spark a deadly famine in the North.

Pyongyang’s leaders have tended to use Beijing and Moscow to balance each other. Kim Jong Un initially had a relatively cold relationship with both countries, which both joined the United States in imposing strict sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear tests.

But after his country’s last nuclear test in 2017, Kim took steps to repair ties.

In 2019 Kim and Putin met for the first time in a summit in the Russian city of Vladivostok.

Since then, Russia has joined China in opposing new sanctions, vetoing a US-led push in May and publicly splitting the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.

MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Wednesday (Oct 5) said his nation may need to turn to Russia to fulfil its fuel needs amid rising global energy prices, bucking pressure from Western allies for countries to shun Moscow.

Speaking to the Manila Overseas Press Club, Marcos, who is also agriculture minister, said the Philippines may also deal with Russia for supply of fertiliser.

“We take we take a very balanced view because the truth of the matter is, we may have to deal with Russia for fuel, for fertiliser,” said Marcos.

The Philippines like many countries is grappling with soaring inflation, due to supply woes fanned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Philippines, a US defence ally, has not imposed any sanctions on Russia.

Marcos, the son and namesake of the ousted late strongman who ruled the Philippines for two decades, also said he wanted his country to play a key role in promoting regional peace, amid challenges posed by North Korea and China-Taiwan tensions.

“We hope to be part of leading, the ones that are leading the effort for peace,” he said.

ULAANBAATAR: Thousands of Russians have fled into Mongolia across its northern frontier in a bid to evade conscription to Ukraine, putting further pressure on the government in Ulaanbaatar and its efforts to distance itself from the conflict.

Russians were forced to queue for hours at the border crossing at Kyakhta in the ethnic Mongol province of Buryatia, but said they had little choice after President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 soldiers aimed at repelling a counter-offensive in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

“My country has started partial mobilisation and I think it is negatively affecting society,” said one. “We waited a very long time at the Russian side of the border – about 16 hours.”

Suren Bat-Tur, the owner of a guesthouse in the capital Ulaanbaatar that normally caters for backpackers, has also been helping his friends in Buryatia to escape the draft.

The guesthouse has filled up with Russians since Putin’s mobilisation order, and Bat-Tur said he has already turned away dozens of requests for beds.

“I wanted to help them, it has been very difficult,” said Bat-Tur. “Now they are looking for work in construction or agriculture so they have something to do while they are here.” 

One newly arrived guest, who identified himself as Aleksey, said he crossed into Mongolia last weekend, leaving behind his wife and three children. He arrived at the border late at night on a tourist bus packed with other young Russians. 

“There were a lot of young people, a lot of people trying to get away from Putin,” he said.

Aleksey, 40, a construction worker, plans to stay in Mongolia until the situation in Russia improves, and said he would do whatever it takes to avoid the war.

“We are not afraid, but why do we have to fight in Ukraine, why?” he asked. “If other countries would attack Russia, we would fight for our country. But why are we going to Ukraine? For what?”

MOSCOW: Russia said on Monday (Sep 26) it had detained a Japanese diplomat based in the eastern city of Vladivostok for carrying out espionage-related work and declared the official person non grata, news agencies reported.

“A Japanese diplomat was detained red-handed while receiving classified information, in exchange for money, about Russia’s cooperation with another country in the Asia-Pacific region,” the FSB security service said in a statement, carried by Russian news agencies.

The diplomat had also been soliciting information about “the impact of Western sanctions” on the eastern Primorsky region, the FSB said, according to news agencies.

Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement the diplomat was ordered to leave the country within 48 hours.

The FSB said it had lodged a protest with Tokyo through diplomatic channels and declared the diplomat identified as consulate general in Vladivostok, Motoki Tatsunori, persona non grata, the news agencies reported.

The FSB distributed a short video it said showed the diplomat acknowledging that he had violated Russian laws.

Russia considers Japan to be a “hostile” country, a designation it shares with all EU countries, the United States and allies including Britain and Australia.

Moscow and Tokyo have traded tit-for-tat sanctions and expulsions of diplomats since Feb 24 when Vladimir Putin launched what the Kremlin calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Tokyo had complex relations with Moscow before the Ukrainian invasion and the two sides have yet to sign a post-World War II peace treaty.

Attempts to do so have been hampered by a long-running dispute over islands controlled by Russia, which calls them the Kurils.

POLITICAL MINEFIELDS AHEAD

There are political minefields ahead for India and its partners. NATO-Russia tensions will surely rise when Sweden and Finland’s requests for membership are taken up. An intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war might force India to choose between its Quad partners and Russia.

India’s earlier intention to achieve multipolarity through the BRICS will be even less tenable if Russia-China relations become ironclad. The notion of a more distributed power system will collide against the reality that closer ties with the US may appear a better option for India.

At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, India worried that China would gain an enfeebled and dependent Russia as a junior partner. New Delhi stood to lose Russia as a strong and reliable geopolitical partner. Economically, the sanctions on Russia are setting off a process of de-dollarisation that benefits China. The Ukraine conflict could deliver advantages to China that it could not have otherwise secured.

Indian policymakers are betting that Russia will not want to put all its eggs in one basket and that Russia will continue to respect India’s independence. A weakened Russia will still have veto power at the UN Security Council where India has historically been a beneficiary.

India is betting that the level of convergence with the Quad members on China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific is strong enough for them to tolerate dissonance on other grounds. It is counting on its friends to realise that pressure to take sides is unlikely to produce results and may backfire.

India has consolidated its strategic autonomy without economic or strategic costs. Its Quad partners appear willing to tolerate differences – after all, there is no Indo-Pacific without India.

New Delhi has been able to set the terms of global engagement in the current geopolitical constellation. But depending on the outcome of the Ukraine war, India’s conception of the type of global order that guards its strategic autonomy may have to be reluctantly refined.

Deepa M Ollapally is Research Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. This commentary was first published in East Asia Forum.

SEOUL: North Korea on Thursday (Sep 22) said it has never supplied weapons or ammunition to Russia and has no plans to do so, while warning the United States to “keep its mouth shut” and stop circulating rumours aimed at “tarnishing” the country’s image.

“Recently, the US and other hostile forces talked about the ‘violation of a resolution’ of the UNSC, spreading a ‘rumour of arms dealings’ between the DPRK and Russia … We have never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia before and we will not plan to export them,” KCNA quoted the country’s vice director general of the General Bureau of Equipment of the Ministry of National Defence as saying in a statement, without naming the official.

US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel earlier this month said that Russia “is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for use in Ukraine”.

Calling it a “potential purchase”, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby later clarified that there were “no indications that purchase has been completed and certainly no indications that those weapons are being used inside of Ukraine.”

The United States has also accused Iran of supplying drones to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine, which Tehran has denied.

Russia also denied the allegations and demanded the United States to provide evidence.

Russia and North Korea have recently talked up their ties.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last month told North Korean leader Kim Jong Un the two countries will “expand the comprehensive and constructive bilateral relations with common efforts”, in a letter sent for Korea’s liberation day.

Kim also sent a letter to Putin saying the “strategic and tactical cooperation, support and solidarity” between the two countries had reached a new level amid their common efforts to frustrate threats and provocations from “hostile military forces”.

Ukraine, which is resisting a Russian invasion described by Moscow as a “special military operation”, severed relations with Pyongyang after the reclusive nation in July recognised two Russian-backed breakaway “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine as independent states.

RUSSIA, THE JUNIOR PARTNER

What is happening in Ukraine makes Putin look weak. And it makes Xi also look weak by association.

It’s not hard to imagine that Putin’s public admission of Xi’s concerns was engineered to be in both leaders’ interest, with Russia playing the junior partner in the relationship and risking even more global approbation.

The message was intended for an international audience – it was not covered by Chinese state media. It allows China to showcase its international standing, to show the world Xi can speak bluntly to Putin who will “explain in detail our position” in response.

Though China is snapping up Russian oil and gas at highly discounted prices, Beijing has not lent support in ways that could trigger sanctions. Being seen to publicly “criticise” Russia could lend China more buffer to indirectly support Russia – such as recent agreements to pay for natural gas supplies in roubles and yuan.

This, in turn, allows Russia to preserve a crucial economic lifeline while it spends millions a day on the invasion. China has purchased a total of US$43.68 billion in oil, gas, coal and electricity imports from Russia so far this year, with a record US$8.3 billion in August.

How all this plays out should be closely followed until Xi and Putin meet again at the G20 summit in Bali in November.

James Carouso is a Senior Fellow and Chair of the Australia Advisory Board at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, and a former Acting US Ambassador to Australia.