ASTANA, Kazakhstan: President Vladimir Putin used a speech to Asian leaders on Thursday (Oct 13) to develop a theme that he has pressed more intensely as Russia’s military fortunes have waned: That Moscow is fighting the West to establish a fairer world.

With Western economic sanctions also tightening, Putin has shifted his emphasis from fighting alleged “fascists” in Kyiv to confronting a “collective West” that is arming Ukraine with the supposed aim of expanding its influence at Russia’s expense.

“The world is becoming truly multi-polar,” Putin said. “And Asia, where new centres of power are emerging, plays a significant, if not key, role in it.”

At a meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in the Kazakh capital Astana, Putin described the West as a neo-colonial power bent on stunting the development of the rest of the world and exploiting poorer countries.

“Like many of our partners in Asia, we believe a revision is needed of the global financial system, which has for decades allowed the self-proclaimed so-called ‘golden billion’, who redirected all capital flows and technologies to themselves to live largely at others’ expense,” Putin said.

The members of CICA have their own diverse agendas, however, and have also become more valuable to Russia as customers for the oil, gas and other commodities that it is finding hard to sell to the West.

The body includes several Central Asian ex-Soviet nations that regard Russia as their former colonial overlord – as well as China, India and some Arab and Southeast Asian nations, which have benefited from close trading ties with the West and Japan.

Kazakh authorities this month rejected a demand from Russia that they expel Ukraine’s ambassador, chiding Moscow for what they called an inappropriate tone between “equal strategic partners”.

The phrase “golden billion” became popular in Russian political discourse in the 1990s as part of a theory positing that Western nations had conspired to exploit the resources of others, above all Russia, while keeping them poor and brainwashing their populations.

The theory also supports Putin’s avowed aim of restoring Russia’s status of global power by opposing what he sees as a United States-led cabal.

Kyiv and the West deny any intention to threaten or diminish Russia, which they say is waging a war of imperialist aggression against Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday described the war in Ukraine as part of a Russian “crusade” against liberal democracy.

CALM DOWN, EVERYONE

Everyone probably needs to calm down a bit. The US may feel it has justifiable reasons to complain about India’s equivocation on Ukraine, but it would be wiser not to do so by transparently cosying up to Pakistan. Every now and then someone in Washington thinks it is time to reset relations with Islamabad, and within a decade their successors discover it was a terrible idea.

Meanwhile, we in India should also consider more carefully whether alienating the US and the West is really worth it. It won’t hurt us immediately, sure. Right now, India’s economy looks stable enough for the government to feel certain that the West needs us more than we need them.

But, if the next decade is to transform our economy and young Indians’ futures, we will need Western investment, technology and markets. If we are to secure ourselves against Pakistan and China, we will need Western weaponry, at least in the short term.

Perhaps Washington really wasn’t reminding New Delhi last week that two can play the game of balancing interests. We in India should nevertheless remember why we have, for more than a decade now, stressed “shared values” with the West. It’s a way of papering over temporary disagreements – one that isn’t available in a cold, transactional, “interests”-based relationship.

Over the coming decades, we will need the West even as we disagree with it. Sticking to our values may just be India’s real national interest.

SEOUL: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a birthday greeting to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, congratulating him for “crushing the challenges and threats of the United States”, the latest sign of deepening ties between the two countries.

As Russia’s isolation over its war in Ukraine has increased, it has seen increasing value in North Korea. For North Korea’s part, relations with Russia haven’t always been as warm as they were during the heady days of the Soviet Union, but now the country is reaping clear benefits from Moscow’s need for friends.

Here’s how North Korea-Russia relations began, and how they are becoming closer:

POLITICAL BACKING

Communist North Korea was formed in the early days of the Cold War with the backing of the Soviet Union. North Korea later battled the South and its US and United Nations allies to a stalemate in the 1950-1953 Korean War with extensive aid from China and the Soviet Union.

North Korea was heavily reliant on Soviet aid for decades, and when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s it helped spark a deadly famine in the North.

Pyongyang’s leaders have tended to use Beijing and Moscow to balance each other. Kim Jong Un initially had a relatively cold relationship with both countries, which both joined the United States in imposing strict sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear tests.

But after his country’s last nuclear test in 2017, Kim took steps to repair ties.

In 2019 Kim and Putin met for the first time in a summit in the Russian city of Vladivostok.

Since then, Russia has joined China in opposing new sanctions, vetoing a US-led push in May and publicly splitting the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.

POLITICAL MINEFIELDS AHEAD

There are political minefields ahead for India and its partners. NATO-Russia tensions will surely rise when Sweden and Finland’s requests for membership are taken up. An intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war might force India to choose between its Quad partners and Russia.

India’s earlier intention to achieve multipolarity through the BRICS will be even less tenable if Russia-China relations become ironclad. The notion of a more distributed power system will collide against the reality that closer ties with the US may appear a better option for India.

At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, India worried that China would gain an enfeebled and dependent Russia as a junior partner. New Delhi stood to lose Russia as a strong and reliable geopolitical partner. Economically, the sanctions on Russia are setting off a process of de-dollarisation that benefits China. The Ukraine conflict could deliver advantages to China that it could not have otherwise secured.

Indian policymakers are betting that Russia will not want to put all its eggs in one basket and that Russia will continue to respect India’s independence. A weakened Russia will still have veto power at the UN Security Council where India has historically been a beneficiary.

India is betting that the level of convergence with the Quad members on China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific is strong enough for them to tolerate dissonance on other grounds. It is counting on its friends to realise that pressure to take sides is unlikely to produce results and may backfire.

India has consolidated its strategic autonomy without economic or strategic costs. Its Quad partners appear willing to tolerate differences – after all, there is no Indo-Pacific without India.

New Delhi has been able to set the terms of global engagement in the current geopolitical constellation. But depending on the outcome of the Ukraine war, India’s conception of the type of global order that guards its strategic autonomy may have to be reluctantly refined.

Deepa M Ollapally is Research Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Rising Powers Initiative at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. This commentary was first published in East Asia Forum.

TAIPEI: Taiwan is “proud” of its efforts to help Ukraine in the country’s struggle to defend itself and those efforts must continue, President Tsai Ing-wen told a conference taking place in New York.

Ukraine’s plight has won broad sympathy in Taiwan, where many see parallels between Ukraine’s situation and the threat Taipei’s government says it faces from China, which views the island as its own territory.

Taiwan has donated more than US$30 million for humanitarian relief, mostly raised from the public, and joined in Western-led sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February. Moscow calls its actions “a special military operation”.

“As we watched the carnage of the Russian invasion, Taiwan is proud to play a role in the effort to assist the Ukrainians in their struggle to defend their country and freedom. We must continue with our efforts,” Tsai said in remarks pre-recorded from her office and played at the Concordia Summit on Monday (Sep 19).

Taiwan has been confronted by increasingly aggressive threats from China, she added.

“We have to educate ourselves on the authoritarian playbook, and understand that Taiwan’s democracy will not be the only thing the PRC seeks to extinguish,” Tsai said, referring to the People’s Republic of China.

SINGAPORE: China’s President Xi Jinping trod carefully around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15), in a delicate balancing act that analysts said was not easy for Beijing to pull off.

“How do you simultaneously balance a deepening embrace of China when that very embrace is further undermining your relationships with the West? It’s not an easy balancing act for Beijing to pull off,” political observer Ali Wyne told CNA’s Asia First on Friday, a day after the two leaders spoke.

China recognises that while a tighter embrace of Russia is necessary to offset pressures from advanced industrial democracies, in the long term, relationships in the West are going to be far more consequential than its relationship with Russia, noted Mr Wyne, a senior analyst from Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice.

“The fact that Putin publicly conceded, in a forum that is being watched around the world, that Xi has questions and concerns about the war, sends an important signal about China’s concerns about the long-term consequences of the war,” said Mr Wyne.

Mr Putin surprised analysts in his opening remarks when he acknowledged that China had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine, during a meeting held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan.

Mr Wyne, whose work focuses on US-China relations, said that the mood had “sobered somewhat” compared to back in February when Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” partnership to counter US influence.

“I think that what we’re seeing is that the relationship indeed has limits,” said Mr Wyne.

THE BALANCING ACT

Still, China doesn’t want to be seen by the Russians as not supportive of them even as it tries not to generate more problems with the West than it already has now, said Dr Benjamin Ho, assistant professor of the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

“So I think issues such as Ukraine, Taiwan and NATO expansion … will mostly be in broad strokes and not in specific details. I don’t think that Xi or Putin will be revealing all their cards to one another,” Dr Ho told CNA938’s Asia First.

Dr Ho said China has two key messages to convey to Moscow over the course of the summit.

“First, whatever happens in Ukraine, or to Ukraine, is Russia’s responsibility, and that it should be contained within Russia and not spill over to China,” said Dr Ho. “The second is that China sees Moscow as a strategic partner with whom to forge a world order, that is presumably more just than what we’ve seen with the existing American-led liberal order.”

China has refrained from calling Russia’s operation against Ukraine an “invasion” and in return, Russia has praised China for what it calls a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Mr Wyne said China is cautiously managing a number of competing objectives – its relationship with Russia, its relationship with the West, as well as committing to upholding sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“China’s policy trilemma is that it’s very difficult to sustain all three of those trajectories simultaneously,” said Mr Wyne.

Analysts said that a prolonged war in Ukraine contributing to growing disruptions to energy and food markets does not advance China’s national interests.

“I think that most signs are that China, at least publicly, is not wanting to condemn Russia, but privately we can imagine that China is saying to Russia, look, this war is hurting you. It’s hurting us. It’s hurting our relationship. And so let’s see if we can push for a diplomatic resolution,” said Mr Wyne.

SINGAPORE: China’s President Xi Jinping trod carefully around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15), in a delicate balancing act that analysts said was not easy for Beijing to pull off.

“How do you simultaneously balance a deepening embrace of Russia when that very embrace is further undermining your relationships with the West? It’s not an easy balancing act for Beijing to pull off,” political observer Ali Wyne told CNA’s Asia First on Friday, a day after the two leaders spoke.

China recognises that while a tighter embrace of Russia is necessary to offset pressures from advanced industrial democracies, in the long term, relationships in the West are going to be far more consequential than its relationship with Russia, noted Mr Wyne, a senior analyst from Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice.

“The fact that Putin publicly conceded, in a forum that is being watched around the world, that Xi has questions and concerns about the war, sends an important signal about China’s concerns about the long-term consequences of the war,” said Mr Wyne.

Mr Putin surprised analysts in his opening remarks when he acknowledged that China had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine, during a meeting held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan.

Mr Wyne, whose work focuses on US-China relations, said that the mood had “sobered somewhat” compared to back in February when Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” partnership to counter US influence.

“I think that what we’re seeing is that the relationship indeed has limits,” said Mr Wyne.

THE BALANCING ACT

Still, China doesn’t want to be seen by the Russians as not supportive of them even as it tries not to generate more problems with the West than it already has now, said Dr Benjamin Ho, assistant professor of the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

“So I think issues such as Ukraine, Taiwan and NATO expansion … will mostly be in broad strokes and not in specific details. I don’t think that Xi or Putin will be revealing all their cards to one another,” Dr Ho told CNA938’s Asia First.

Dr Ho said China has two key messages to convey to Moscow over the course of the summit.

“First, whatever happens in Ukraine, or to Ukraine, is Russia’s responsibility, and that it should be contained within Russia and not spill over to China,” said Dr Ho. “The second is that China sees Moscow as a strategic partner with whom to forge a world order, that is presumably more just than what we’ve seen with the existing American-led liberal order.”

China has refrained from calling Russia’s operation against Ukraine an “invasion” and in return, Russia has praised China for what it calls a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Mr Wyne said China is cautiously managing a number of competing objectives – its relationship with Russia, its relationship with the West, as well as committing to upholding sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“China’s policy trilemma is that it’s very difficult to sustain all three of those trajectories simultaneously,” said Mr Wyne.

Analysts said that a prolonged war in Ukraine contributing to growing disruptions to energy and food markets does not advance China’s national interests.

“I think that most signs are that China, at least publicly, is not wanting to condemn Russia, but privately we can imagine that China is saying to Russia, look, this war is hurting you. It’s hurting us. It’s hurting our relationship. And so let’s see if we can push for a diplomatic resolution,” said Mr Wyne.

SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15) said he understood that Xi Jinping had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine but praised China’s leader for what he said was a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of people and pushed the global economy into uncharted waters with soaring prices for food and energy amid the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

At their first face-to-face meeting since the war, Xi said he was very happy to meet “my old friend” again after Putin said crude attempts by the United States to create a unipolar world would fail.

“We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” Putin told Xi.

“We understand your questions and concern about this. During today’s meeting, we will of course explain our position.”

Putin’s first remarks about Chinese concern over the war come just days after a lightning rout of his forces in northeastern Ukraine.

Xi, who the Communist Party is due next month to bestow a historic third leadership term and thus cement his place as the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, did not mention Ukraine in his public remarks.

A Chinese readout of the meeting also did not mention Ukraine. It said China is willing to give strong support to Russia for matters related to its core interests, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

China has refrained from condemning Russia’s operation against Ukraine or calling it an “invasion” in line with the Kremlin, which casts the war as “a special military operation”.

The last time Xi and Putin met in person, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, they declared a “no limits” partnership and inked a promise to collaborate more against the West.

Still, Beijing is perturbed by the impact on the global economy and has been careful not to give material support to Russia that could trigger Western sanctions on China’s own economy.

MOSCOW: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping will discuss Ukraine and Taiwan at a meeting in Uzbekistan on Thursday (Sep 15) which the Kremlin said would hold “special significance” given the geopolitical situation.

Xi will leave China for the first time in more than two years for a trip this week to Central Asia where he will meet Putin, just a month before he is set to cement his place as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

“The presidents will discuss both the bilateral agenda and the main regional and international topics,” Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said at a briefing in Moscow.

“Naturally, they will give a positive assessment of the unprecedentedly high level of trust within the bilateral strategic partnership,” he added.

The deepening “no limits” partnership between the rising superpower of China and the natural resources titan of Russia is a geopolitical development the West is watching with anxiety.

The meeting will give Xi an opportunity to underscore his clout while Putin can demonstrate Russia’s tilt towards Asia; both leaders can show their opposition to the United States just as the West seeks to punish Russia for what Moscow calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.