ASTANA, Kazakhstan: President Vladimir Putin used a speech to Asian leaders on Thursday (Oct 13) to develop a theme that he has pressed more intensely as Russia’s military fortunes have waned: That Moscow is fighting the West to establish a fairer world.

With Western economic sanctions also tightening, Putin has shifted his emphasis from fighting alleged “fascists” in Kyiv to confronting a “collective West” that is arming Ukraine with the supposed aim of expanding its influence at Russia’s expense.

“The world is becoming truly multi-polar,” Putin said. “And Asia, where new centres of power are emerging, plays a significant, if not key, role in it.”

At a meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in the Kazakh capital Astana, Putin described the West as a neo-colonial power bent on stunting the development of the rest of the world and exploiting poorer countries.

“Like many of our partners in Asia, we believe a revision is needed of the global financial system, which has for decades allowed the self-proclaimed so-called ‘golden billion’, who redirected all capital flows and technologies to themselves to live largely at others’ expense,” Putin said.

The members of CICA have their own diverse agendas, however, and have also become more valuable to Russia as customers for the oil, gas and other commodities that it is finding hard to sell to the West.

The body includes several Central Asian ex-Soviet nations that regard Russia as their former colonial overlord – as well as China, India and some Arab and Southeast Asian nations, which have benefited from close trading ties with the West and Japan.

Kazakh authorities this month rejected a demand from Russia that they expel Ukraine’s ambassador, chiding Moscow for what they called an inappropriate tone between “equal strategic partners”.

The phrase “golden billion” became popular in Russian political discourse in the 1990s as part of a theory positing that Western nations had conspired to exploit the resources of others, above all Russia, while keeping them poor and brainwashing their populations.

The theory also supports Putin’s avowed aim of restoring Russia’s status of global power by opposing what he sees as a United States-led cabal.

Kyiv and the West deny any intention to threaten or diminish Russia, which they say is waging a war of imperialist aggression against Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday described the war in Ukraine as part of a Russian “crusade” against liberal democracy.

WASHINGTON: Billionaire Elon Musk, days after floating a possible deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine that drew condemnation in Ukraine, suggested that tensions between China and Taiwan could be resolved by handing over some control of Taiwan to Beijing.

“My recommendation . . . would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy,” Musk, the world’s richest person, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday (Oct 7).

Musk made the remarks when asked by the newspaper about China, where his Tesla electric car company operates a large factory in Shanghai.

Beijing, which says democratically ruled Taiwan is one of its provinces, has long vowed to bring Taiwan under its control and has not ruled out the use of force to do so.

Taiwan’s government strongly objects to China’s sovereignty claims and says only the island’s 23 million people can decide its future.

“And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong,” Musk, was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

The Shanghai factory accounted for about half of Tesla’s global deliveries last year. Musk also said China has sought assurances that he would not offer the Starlink Internet service of his SpaceX rocket company there.

Musk said he reckoned that conflict over Taiwan was inevitable and warned of its potential impact on not only Tesla, but also on iPhone maker Apple and the wider economy. The interview did not elaborate on those remarks.

Earlier this week, Musk proposed that Ukraine permanently cede Crimea to Russia, that new referendums be held under UN auspices to determine the fate of Russian-controlled territory, and that Ukraine agree to neutrality.

He asked Twitter users to weigh in on his plan, drawing sharp criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who proposed his own Twitter poll: “Which @elonmusk do you like more? One who supports Ukraine (or) one who supports Russia.”

ULAANBAATAR: Thousands of Russians have fled into Mongolia across its northern frontier in a bid to evade conscription to Ukraine, putting further pressure on the government in Ulaanbaatar and its efforts to distance itself from the conflict.

Russians were forced to queue for hours at the border crossing at Kyakhta in the ethnic Mongol province of Buryatia, but said they had little choice after President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 soldiers aimed at repelling a counter-offensive in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

“My country has started partial mobilisation and I think it is negatively affecting society,” said one. “We waited a very long time at the Russian side of the border – about 16 hours.”

Suren Bat-Tur, the owner of a guesthouse in the capital Ulaanbaatar that normally caters for backpackers, has also been helping his friends in Buryatia to escape the draft.

The guesthouse has filled up with Russians since Putin’s mobilisation order, and Bat-Tur said he has already turned away dozens of requests for beds.

“I wanted to help them, it has been very difficult,” said Bat-Tur. “Now they are looking for work in construction or agriculture so they have something to do while they are here.” 

One newly arrived guest, who identified himself as Aleksey, said he crossed into Mongolia last weekend, leaving behind his wife and three children. He arrived at the border late at night on a tourist bus packed with other young Russians. 

“There were a lot of young people, a lot of people trying to get away from Putin,” he said.

Aleksey, 40, a construction worker, plans to stay in Mongolia until the situation in Russia improves, and said he would do whatever it takes to avoid the war.

“We are not afraid, but why do we have to fight in Ukraine, why?” he asked. “If other countries would attack Russia, we would fight for our country. But why are we going to Ukraine? For what?”

NEW DELHI: India told the UN Security Council on Thursday (Sep 22) that the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict was very concerning and that the outlook was more so, as New Delhi sharpened its calls for peace.

As long-term trade and defence partners, India and Russia have sided with each other for years. India has stepped up purchases of oil and coal from Russia since the Ukraine war began in February.

India has not explicitly condemned Russia’s aggression but Prime Minister Narendra Modi told President Vladimir Putin last week that this cannot be an era of war, in his strongest public comment on the matter that was welcomed by the United States.

“The trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is a matter of profound concern for the entire international community,” India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, said in New York. “The future outlook appears even more disturbing. The nuclear issue is of particular anxiety.”

Putin ordered Russia’s first wartime mobilisation since World War Two on Wednesday and threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend his country.

Jaishankar said surging costs and shortages of food grains, fuel and fertiliser could worsen with the escalation of the war, urging for an immediate end to hostilities and resumption of dialogue and diplomacy.

The United States has been trying to wean India off its decades-old heavy reliance on Russia for military equipment.

Several US officials have visited India since the war, offering it more defence equipment to get it to reduce ties with Moscow and keep its energy imports from Russia in check.

Addressing university students on Wednesday, Jaishankar said the world still needs nations that take independent positions in international matters, adding that India had made “remarkable progress” in ties with the United States under Modi.

“The world today requires independent countries, independent-minded countries who take positions,” Jaishankar said. “The politics of the last six months have shown that there is a space out there for countries who are not part of a very polarised scenario.”

RUSSIA, THE JUNIOR PARTNER

What is happening in Ukraine makes Putin look weak. And it makes Xi also look weak by association.

It’s not hard to imagine that Putin’s public admission of Xi’s concerns was engineered to be in both leaders’ interest, with Russia playing the junior partner in the relationship and risking even more global approbation.

The message was intended for an international audience – it was not covered by Chinese state media. It allows China to showcase its international standing, to show the world Xi can speak bluntly to Putin who will “explain in detail our position” in response.

Though China is snapping up Russian oil and gas at highly discounted prices, Beijing has not lent support in ways that could trigger sanctions. Being seen to publicly “criticise” Russia could lend China more buffer to indirectly support Russia – such as recent agreements to pay for natural gas supplies in roubles and yuan.

This, in turn, allows Russia to preserve a crucial economic lifeline while it spends millions a day on the invasion. China has purchased a total of US$43.68 billion in oil, gas, coal and electricity imports from Russia so far this year, with a record US$8.3 billion in August.

How all this plays out should be closely followed until Xi and Putin meet again at the G20 summit in Bali in November.

James Carouso is a Senior Fellow and Chair of the Australia Advisory Board at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, and a former Acting US Ambassador to Australia.

While G20 meetings are supposed to be about global economic issues, there is no doubt that the war in Ukraine and China’s increasing military activity around Taiwan will be a focus.

Why then have Putin and Xi chosen to participate?

WHAT WILL VLADIMIR PUTIN’S NARRATIVE BE?

Despite so many world leaders being given the chance to confront him, Putin will still see this as an opportunity.

First, Putin can demonstrate (yet again) to the Russian people that he is a strong leader – that he is unafraid to face his nation’s enemies and will not back down.

He can say he offered to meet with United States President Joe Biden without preconditions, and Biden will turn him down. This is because Biden cannot afford the US domestic political cost of a meeting that will not result in progress.

Second, just meeting Zelenskyy, with whom Moscow has rejected calls to meet for months, can be spun as an effort to achieve peace.

Even better would be the opportunity to use this to create a split among Ukraine’s Western supporters. Might he combine this meeting with an increase in gas flows to Europe, timely as the mercury starts to fall in the coming winter months? This could divide opinions on the US call for a weakened Russia.

Could Putin offer a ceasefire? Would Zelenskyy agree to any territorial concessions? Much depends on where the opposing forces are come November.

Perhaps this is why many analysts expect a near-term push by Russia to take Ukraine-controlled parts of the Donbas region and why Ukraine seems poised to try retaking Kherson in southern Ukraine.

LONDON: Russian military exercises in the Far East this week will take place on a far smaller scale than when they were last held in 2018, reflecting the strain on Moscow’s forces as they struggle to make headway on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine.

Announcing the Vostok 2022 war games, in which China will also participate, the Russian defence ministry said last month that its capacity to stage such exercises was in no way affected by what Russia calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

But the 50,000 personnel that Moscow said on Monday (Aug 29) will take part are a fraction of the official figure of 300,000 that were said to be involved four years ago – though some Western military analysts suspect that number was overstated.

The defence ministry said that 140 military aircraft and more than 5,000 items of military hardware would be deployed – way down from the 1,000 aircraft and 36,000 tanks and armoured vehicles that were reported to have been sent into the 2018 manoeuvres.

“This is going to be the smallest strategic-level exercise in years because the entire ground forces potential is engaged in operations in Ukraine. So the exercise will have to be very small,” said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military consultancy based in Poland.

Still, the exercises will be closely watched by regional powers such as Japan and South Korea as a significant show of force by Russia and China, which joined up in Vostok 2018 and will take part again in drills on land and at sea.

Russia said that its Pacific Fleet and China’s navy would take part in “joint practical actions to defend maritime communications and areas of maritime economic activity” in the Sea of Japan.

Russia’s armed forces news channel Zvezda on Monday posted footage of Chinese troops unloading armoured vehicles delivered to Russia by rail.