This eventually compelled the generals to look further afield for new arms suppliers. Myanmar approached Russia, other East European countries and even North Korea.

Myanmar generals purchased Russian MiG-29s after a border clash with Thailand in February 2001 showed up the inadequacy of Myanmar’s China-made aircraft, such as the F-7 IIK, against Thailand’s US-made F-16 fighters.

Shortly after the border clash, the Tatmadaw purchased 12 MiG-29s in 2001. In 2009 it negotiated a further purchase of 20 MiG-29s. Then, the acquisition was reportedly Russia’s biggest fighter deal since Algeria scrapped an agreement to buy 34 MiG-29s.

The Tatmadaw also turned to Russia for military modernisation and training. This started before Min Aung Hlaing became Commander-in-Chief in 2011. Vice Senior-General Maung Aye, the second-in-command of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), made the overture with the consent of SPDC supremo Senior General Than Shwe, according to military and related sources.

The same retired major-general who divulged the Tatmadaw’s dissatisfaction with China also shared that both Tatmadaw generals – Than Shwe and Maung Aye – fought against the China-backed Communist Party of Burma. He added that they both understood “where the real external threat lay”.

AWKWARDNESS IN MYANMAR-CHINA RELATIONS

There has also been an awkwardness in the junta’s relations with China after the 2021 coup, underscored by China’s concerns to safeguard its economic interests in Myanmar. This may have persuaded the current crop of generals to recall their mentor Maung Aye’s idea of seeking a new partner and arms supplier in Russia.

Unlike other generals who had visited China since taking power, Min Aung Hlaing has not been to China since the coup. The junta has also rebuffed a Chinese request for Sun Guoxiang, its special envoy for Asian Affairs, to meet Aung San Suu Kyi.

ASTANA, Kazakhstan: President Vladimir Putin used a speech to Asian leaders on Thursday (Oct 13) to develop a theme that he has pressed more intensely as Russia’s military fortunes have waned: That Moscow is fighting the West to establish a fairer world.

With Western economic sanctions also tightening, Putin has shifted his emphasis from fighting alleged “fascists” in Kyiv to confronting a “collective West” that is arming Ukraine with the supposed aim of expanding its influence at Russia’s expense.

“The world is becoming truly multi-polar,” Putin said. “And Asia, where new centres of power are emerging, plays a significant, if not key, role in it.”

At a meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in the Kazakh capital Astana, Putin described the West as a neo-colonial power bent on stunting the development of the rest of the world and exploiting poorer countries.

“Like many of our partners in Asia, we believe a revision is needed of the global financial system, which has for decades allowed the self-proclaimed so-called ‘golden billion’, who redirected all capital flows and technologies to themselves to live largely at others’ expense,” Putin said.

The members of CICA have their own diverse agendas, however, and have also become more valuable to Russia as customers for the oil, gas and other commodities that it is finding hard to sell to the West.

The body includes several Central Asian ex-Soviet nations that regard Russia as their former colonial overlord – as well as China, India and some Arab and Southeast Asian nations, which have benefited from close trading ties with the West and Japan.

Kazakh authorities this month rejected a demand from Russia that they expel Ukraine’s ambassador, chiding Moscow for what they called an inappropriate tone between “equal strategic partners”.

The phrase “golden billion” became popular in Russian political discourse in the 1990s as part of a theory positing that Western nations had conspired to exploit the resources of others, above all Russia, while keeping them poor and brainwashing their populations.

The theory also supports Putin’s avowed aim of restoring Russia’s status of global power by opposing what he sees as a United States-led cabal.

Kyiv and the West deny any intention to threaten or diminish Russia, which they say is waging a war of imperialist aggression against Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Thursday described the war in Ukraine as part of a Russian “crusade” against liberal democracy.

CALM DOWN, EVERYONE

Everyone probably needs to calm down a bit. The US may feel it has justifiable reasons to complain about India’s equivocation on Ukraine, but it would be wiser not to do so by transparently cosying up to Pakistan. Every now and then someone in Washington thinks it is time to reset relations with Islamabad, and within a decade their successors discover it was a terrible idea.

Meanwhile, we in India should also consider more carefully whether alienating the US and the West is really worth it. It won’t hurt us immediately, sure. Right now, India’s economy looks stable enough for the government to feel certain that the West needs us more than we need them.

But, if the next decade is to transform our economy and young Indians’ futures, we will need Western investment, technology and markets. If we are to secure ourselves against Pakistan and China, we will need Western weaponry, at least in the short term.

Perhaps Washington really wasn’t reminding New Delhi last week that two can play the game of balancing interests. We in India should nevertheless remember why we have, for more than a decade now, stressed “shared values” with the West. It’s a way of papering over temporary disagreements – one that isn’t available in a cold, transactional, “interests”-based relationship.

Over the coming decades, we will need the West even as we disagree with it. Sticking to our values may just be India’s real national interest.

SEOUL: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sent a birthday greeting to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, congratulating him for “crushing the challenges and threats of the United States”, the latest sign of deepening ties between the two countries.

As Russia’s isolation over its war in Ukraine has increased, it has seen increasing value in North Korea. For North Korea’s part, relations with Russia haven’t always been as warm as they were during the heady days of the Soviet Union, but now the country is reaping clear benefits from Moscow’s need for friends.

Here’s how North Korea-Russia relations began, and how they are becoming closer:

POLITICAL BACKING

Communist North Korea was formed in the early days of the Cold War with the backing of the Soviet Union. North Korea later battled the South and its US and United Nations allies to a stalemate in the 1950-1953 Korean War with extensive aid from China and the Soviet Union.

North Korea was heavily reliant on Soviet aid for decades, and when the Soviet Union collapsed in the 1990s it helped spark a deadly famine in the North.

Pyongyang’s leaders have tended to use Beijing and Moscow to balance each other. Kim Jong Un initially had a relatively cold relationship with both countries, which both joined the United States in imposing strict sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear tests.

But after his country’s last nuclear test in 2017, Kim took steps to repair ties.

In 2019 Kim and Putin met for the first time in a summit in the Russian city of Vladivostok.

Since then, Russia has joined China in opposing new sanctions, vetoing a US-led push in May and publicly splitting the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.

RUSSIA, THE JUNIOR PARTNER

What is happening in Ukraine makes Putin look weak. And it makes Xi also look weak by association.

It’s not hard to imagine that Putin’s public admission of Xi’s concerns was engineered to be in both leaders’ interest, with Russia playing the junior partner in the relationship and risking even more global approbation.

The message was intended for an international audience – it was not covered by Chinese state media. It allows China to showcase its international standing, to show the world Xi can speak bluntly to Putin who will “explain in detail our position” in response.

Though China is snapping up Russian oil and gas at highly discounted prices, Beijing has not lent support in ways that could trigger sanctions. Being seen to publicly “criticise” Russia could lend China more buffer to indirectly support Russia – such as recent agreements to pay for natural gas supplies in roubles and yuan.

This, in turn, allows Russia to preserve a crucial economic lifeline while it spends millions a day on the invasion. China has purchased a total of US$43.68 billion in oil, gas, coal and electricity imports from Russia so far this year, with a record US$8.3 billion in August.

How all this plays out should be closely followed until Xi and Putin meet again at the G20 summit in Bali in November.

James Carouso is a Senior Fellow and Chair of the Australia Advisory Board at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, and a former Acting US Ambassador to Australia.

SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin that now “is not a time for war” on Friday (Sep 16) on the sidelines of a regional summit.

New Delhi and Moscow have longstanding ties dating back to the Cold War, and Russia remains by far India’s biggest arms supplier.

But in their first face-to-face meeting since Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine in February, Modi told Putin, “Excellency, I know today’s time is not a time for war”.

India has shied away from explicitly condemning Russia for the invasion, which sent the price of oil and other commodities soaring.

But he stressed the importance of “democracy and diplomacy and dialogue” in the meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, footage showed on Indian public service broadcaster Doordashan.

They would discuss “how to move forward on the path of peace”, Modi added.

The SCO summit comes as Russian forces face major battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, and represented an opportunity for Putin to show his country had not been fully isolated despite Western efforts.

“I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, your concerns … We will do our best to end this as soon as possible”, Putin told Modi.

But he added that Ukraine’s leadership had rejected negotiations “and stated that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, on the battlefield”.

On Thursday, Putin met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and acknowledged that his key ally Beijing also had “concerns” over the conflict.

BALANCING ACT

New Delhi has long walked a tightrope in its relations with the West and Moscow – and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the difficulty of that balancing act.

It has urged a cessation of hostilities but repeatedly brushed off calls from Washington to condemn Russia, despite India pursuing greater security ties with the United States.

Unusually, India is a member of both the SCO and the so-called Quad, a strategic bloc grouping it, the United States, Japan and Australia, and aimed at providing a more substantive counterweight to China’s rising military and economic power.

Former Indian ambassador to Russia Pankaj Saran described Modi’s comments as “quite frank” in saying that the Ukraine crisis “had caught the attention of the whole world and created problems for the developing world”.

“This was a fairly strong message to Russia”, he told Doordashan. “As a friend, his recommendation and India’s position is that this needs to be resolved only through dialogue and diplomacy”.

Putin visited New Delhi late last year, bear-hugging Modi and hailing India as a “great power” as the two men bolstered military and energy ties.

India is the world’s second largest importer of arms after Saudi Arabia and according to the Business Standard, between 2016-20, 49.4 per cent of its purchases were from Russia.

The Asian giant of 1.4 billion people is also a major consumer of Russian oil, ramping up discounted purchases in the wake of a Western embargo. 

SINGAPORE: China’s President Xi Jinping trod carefully around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15), in a delicate balancing act that analysts said was not easy for Beijing to pull off.

“How do you simultaneously balance a deepening embrace of China when that very embrace is further undermining your relationships with the West? It’s not an easy balancing act for Beijing to pull off,” political observer Ali Wyne told CNA’s Asia First on Friday, a day after the two leaders spoke.

China recognises that while a tighter embrace of Russia is necessary to offset pressures from advanced industrial democracies, in the long term, relationships in the West are going to be far more consequential than its relationship with Russia, noted Mr Wyne, a senior analyst from Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice.

“The fact that Putin publicly conceded, in a forum that is being watched around the world, that Xi has questions and concerns about the war, sends an important signal about China’s concerns about the long-term consequences of the war,” said Mr Wyne.

Mr Putin surprised analysts in his opening remarks when he acknowledged that China had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine, during a meeting held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan.

Mr Wyne, whose work focuses on US-China relations, said that the mood had “sobered somewhat” compared to back in February when Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” partnership to counter US influence.

“I think that what we’re seeing is that the relationship indeed has limits,” said Mr Wyne.

THE BALANCING ACT

Still, China doesn’t want to be seen by the Russians as not supportive of them even as it tries not to generate more problems with the West than it already has now, said Dr Benjamin Ho, assistant professor of the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

“So I think issues such as Ukraine, Taiwan and NATO expansion … will mostly be in broad strokes and not in specific details. I don’t think that Xi or Putin will be revealing all their cards to one another,” Dr Ho told CNA938’s Asia First.

Dr Ho said China has two key messages to convey to Moscow over the course of the summit.

“First, whatever happens in Ukraine, or to Ukraine, is Russia’s responsibility, and that it should be contained within Russia and not spill over to China,” said Dr Ho. “The second is that China sees Moscow as a strategic partner with whom to forge a world order, that is presumably more just than what we’ve seen with the existing American-led liberal order.”

China has refrained from calling Russia’s operation against Ukraine an “invasion” and in return, Russia has praised China for what it calls a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Mr Wyne said China is cautiously managing a number of competing objectives – its relationship with Russia, its relationship with the West, as well as committing to upholding sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“China’s policy trilemma is that it’s very difficult to sustain all three of those trajectories simultaneously,” said Mr Wyne.

Analysts said that a prolonged war in Ukraine contributing to growing disruptions to energy and food markets does not advance China’s national interests.

“I think that most signs are that China, at least publicly, is not wanting to condemn Russia, but privately we can imagine that China is saying to Russia, look, this war is hurting you. It’s hurting us. It’s hurting our relationship. And so let’s see if we can push for a diplomatic resolution,” said Mr Wyne.

SINGAPORE: China’s President Xi Jinping trod carefully around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15), in a delicate balancing act that analysts said was not easy for Beijing to pull off.

“How do you simultaneously balance a deepening embrace of Russia when that very embrace is further undermining your relationships with the West? It’s not an easy balancing act for Beijing to pull off,” political observer Ali Wyne told CNA’s Asia First on Friday, a day after the two leaders spoke.

China recognises that while a tighter embrace of Russia is necessary to offset pressures from advanced industrial democracies, in the long term, relationships in the West are going to be far more consequential than its relationship with Russia, noted Mr Wyne, a senior analyst from Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice.

“The fact that Putin publicly conceded, in a forum that is being watched around the world, that Xi has questions and concerns about the war, sends an important signal about China’s concerns about the long-term consequences of the war,” said Mr Wyne.

Mr Putin surprised analysts in his opening remarks when he acknowledged that China had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine, during a meeting held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Uzbekistan.

Mr Wyne, whose work focuses on US-China relations, said that the mood had “sobered somewhat” compared to back in February when Beijing and Moscow announced a “no limits” partnership to counter US influence.

“I think that what we’re seeing is that the relationship indeed has limits,” said Mr Wyne.

THE BALANCING ACT

Still, China doesn’t want to be seen by the Russians as not supportive of them even as it tries not to generate more problems with the West than it already has now, said Dr Benjamin Ho, assistant professor of the China Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).

“So I think issues such as Ukraine, Taiwan and NATO expansion … will mostly be in broad strokes and not in specific details. I don’t think that Xi or Putin will be revealing all their cards to one another,” Dr Ho told CNA938’s Asia First.

Dr Ho said China has two key messages to convey to Moscow over the course of the summit.

“First, whatever happens in Ukraine, or to Ukraine, is Russia’s responsibility, and that it should be contained within Russia and not spill over to China,” said Dr Ho. “The second is that China sees Moscow as a strategic partner with whom to forge a world order, that is presumably more just than what we’ve seen with the existing American-led liberal order.”

China has refrained from calling Russia’s operation against Ukraine an “invasion” and in return, Russia has praised China for what it calls a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Mr Wyne said China is cautiously managing a number of competing objectives – its relationship with Russia, its relationship with the West, as well as committing to upholding sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“China’s policy trilemma is that it’s very difficult to sustain all three of those trajectories simultaneously,” said Mr Wyne.

Analysts said that a prolonged war in Ukraine contributing to growing disruptions to energy and food markets does not advance China’s national interests.

“I think that most signs are that China, at least publicly, is not wanting to condemn Russia, but privately we can imagine that China is saying to Russia, look, this war is hurting you. It’s hurting us. It’s hurting our relationship. And so let’s see if we can push for a diplomatic resolution,” said Mr Wyne.

SAMARKAND, Uzbekistan: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday (Sep 15) said he understood that Xi Jinping had questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine but praised China’s leader for what he said was a “balanced” position on the conflict.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has killed tens of thousands of people and pushed the global economy into uncharted waters with soaring prices for food and energy amid the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

At their first face-to-face meeting since the war, Xi said he was very happy to meet “my old friend” again after Putin said crude attempts by the United States to create a unipolar world would fail.

“We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,” Putin told Xi.

“We understand your questions and concern about this. During today’s meeting, we will of course explain our position.”

Putin’s first remarks about Chinese concern over the war come just days after a lightning rout of his forces in northeastern Ukraine.

Xi, who the Communist Party is due next month to bestow a historic third leadership term and thus cement his place as the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, did not mention Ukraine in his public remarks.

A Chinese readout of the meeting also did not mention Ukraine. It said China is willing to give strong support to Russia for matters related to its core interests, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

China has refrained from condemning Russia’s operation against Ukraine or calling it an “invasion” in line with the Kremlin, which casts the war as “a special military operation”.

The last time Xi and Putin met in person, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, they declared a “no limits” partnership and inked a promise to collaborate more against the West.

Still, Beijing is perturbed by the impact on the global economy and has been careful not to give material support to Russia that could trigger Western sanctions on China’s own economy.

BEIJING: China’s President Xi Jinping visited Uzbekistan on Wednesday (Sep 14), state media said, ahead of a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived here (in Samarkand) Wednesday evening to pay a state visit to Uzbekistan and attend the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO),” the official Xinhua news agency said.

The SCO – established in 2001 as a political, economic and security organisation to rival Western institutions – will bring together Xi and Putin, as well as leaders from India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and other ex-Soviet Central Asian countries.

Xi was met at the airport by officials including Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, Xinhua said.

The Chinese leader was to hold talks with Mirziyoyev on “deepening bilateral cooperation, and on regional and international issues of shared interest,” it said, adding that Xi “looks forward to attending the SCO Samarkand Summit, and working with all parties to carry forward the Shanghai Spirit.”

Xi flew to Samarkand from Nur-Sultan in Kazakhstan, where he met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his first trip overseas since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.

There, the Chinese president vowed full support for the Central Asian country, which has been spooked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kazakhstan is part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a trillion-dollar push to improve trade links across the globe by building landmark infrastructure.