SINGAPORE: Crowds of Causeway bus travellers from Singapore were seen at Malaysia’s immigration building in Johor Bahru on Friday evening (Oct 21), ahead of the Deepavali long weekend.

Videos shared on the Facebook page Malaysia-Singapore Border Crossers showed a crush of commuters jostling for space at the bus platform. 

Shouts could be heard as people pushed forward to walk up the escalator and staircase into the arrival immigration hall. 

A video shared by Facebook user Gugan Zizou at about 10.40pm showed a Malaysian official standing on a platform. 

“Stop pushing, stop pushing!” the uniformed official was heard saying as he attempted to control the crowd.

A separate video taken by Facebook user Revathi Rajagopal showed how the travellers were standing shoulder to shoulder. Voices could be heard urging the crowd to stop pushing. 

“There is a person who is about to fall,” a man was heard saying. 

“In the last general election, we lost 24 federal seats we previously held, just like that. And many of these seats were in the rural Malay heartland,” said Mr Isham, who was recently inducted into the party supreme council.

“We were punished in 2018 and we have learned our lesson,” added the former BN Selangor information chief. 

PH HAS AN ADVANTAGE AMONG URBAN MALAY VOTERS

Meanwhile, Malay voters in urban seats will also be decisive in determining the outcome. These constituencies are mainly concentrated within the Klang Valley and major cities on the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. 

BowerGroupAsia’s Mr Adib pointed out that in GE14, PH won 33 out of 43 Malay-majority urban seats. PAS won six seats while BN won four. 

Mr Fahmi Fadzil, who is the information chief of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), told CNA that the coalition has garnered strong trust among the urban Malays because PH champions issues that they care most about. PKR is a component party of PH.

“A lot of these concerns are related to rice bowl problems, cost of living, public transport and housing. Middle-class families are also against corruption and abuse of power that they have seen the last 50 years,” said Mr Fahmi during a phone interview. 

“They have practical considerations and principled positions,” added the incumbent member of parliament for Lembah Pantai, a Malay-majority urban seat in Kuala Lumpur. Lembah Pantai has been a PH seat since 2008. 

HOBART, Australia: Let the race begin. In the upcoming Malaysia General Election (GE15), the best description for competitive seats is “free for all”.

The Election Commission on Thursday (Oct 20) announced three important dates: Nomination Day on Nov 5, early voting on Nov 15 and Polling Day on Nov 19. There were no real surprises – the general consensus was for Malaysia to go to the polls in mid-November and a two-week campaign period.

What can we expect over the next fortnight before nomination day? Here are the major items to watch out for.

MAD SCRAMBLE ON CANDIDATE ISSUES

First, we can expect a mad scramble to sort out the candidate issue. While the political parties would have settled on most seats, there are problematic seats in both the government and the opposition side. There will always be highly competitive constituencies that all parties want.

This is especially difficult for coalitions where more than one member of the coalition is staking a claim. The golden rule is that the incumbent and his party have first claim.

In the past, this was a manageable problem given that there were really only two big coalitions fighting Malaysian elections – Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH). This is no longer the case. There are currently about 40 to 50 highly competitive constituencies.

There are three credible coalitions – BN, PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – plus a smaller coalition, Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA). GTA consists of Malay nationalists parties led by Mahathir Mohamad, who at 97 is still in the game. On top of this, there are at least two new parties that will put up candidates in these competitive constituencies.

In the meantime, over the next fortnight, party leaders will be holding clandestine meetings with each other to sort out the candidate issue.

Nevertheless, I will not be surprised that on nomination day, there will be seats where members of the same coalition will actually field candidates against each other.

PH YET TO MAKE A FIRM DECISION

At the same time, states under PH have yet to make a firm decision on whether to dissolve the state assemblies. 

PH chairman Anwar Ibrahim said although the three states under the coalition – Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan were still tied to an earlier decision by the PH presidential council not to dissolve the state assemblies, the state politicians have been told to hold detailed discussions with their component party leadership to find common ground.

“Discuss again in detail with the party leadership for a joint decision to be made,” he was quoted as saying by Bernama after a PH presidential council meeting on Wednesday.

Democratic Action Party (DAP) secretary-general Anthony Loke said on Tuesday that the Penang state chapter of his party has asked for a review of the decision against dissolving the state assembly. 

“There are views from many people, especially in Penang, for the elections to be held at the same time,” he was quoted as saying by local media.

Selangor chief minister Amirudin Shari said on Tuesday that Selangor Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah wanted the current PH state government to complete its full term

This was announced following an audience with the sultan earlier that day.

Negeri Sembilan chief minister Aminuddin Harun also said on Tuesday that there is no plan to dissolve the assembly, although PH’s presidential council would have the final say on the matter.

He was quoted as saying by local media that he had informed Negri Sembilan ruler Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir of the decision to hold state elections next year.  

“Tuanku said that if the current state government still has the mandate from the people, there’s no harm to hold off the state election until next year,” he said.

On Thursday, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang confirmed in a statement that the three state assemblies led by his party – Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan will not be dissolved. PAS is a component party of Perikatan Nasional.  

An election was not due until September 2023, but it is believed that Mr Ismail Sabri had been under pressure from some factions of his ruling coalition to hold the vote earlier.

Shortly after Mr Ismail Sabri announced the dissolution of parliament, Comptroller of the Royal Household of Istana Negara, Ahmad Fadil Shamsuddin said that the king had no choice but to consent.

“The king expressed his disappointment in the current political developments of the country and had no choice but to consent to the prime minister’s request to return the mandate back to the people for a stable government,” he said on Monday.

The caretaker prime minister later said that he opted to dissolve parliament in order to prevent disharmony in the Cabinet, after PN ministers wrote to the king to voice their objections over holding polls during this year’s monsoon season. 

According to a Bernama report on Thursday, the caretaker prime minister denied that his decision to dissolve parliament was due to immense pressure from the United Malays National Organisation. 

He added that it was difficult for him to continue leading the government when his Cabinet ministers could not see eye to eye. 

The Election Commission will have a special meeting on Oct 20 to discuss and set important dates for GE15 and the state by-election for Bugaya in Sabah.  

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Ministry of Finance said that the tabling of the 2023 budget last week was not in vain as it will be retabled again after the upcoming general elections.

In a statement on Wednesday (Oct 12), the ministry also said that the budget can be an important policy reference to business and investment sectors to plan their next steps for the year ahead. 

The budget tabled by former Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz on Friday (Oct 7) unveiled a budget of RM372.3 billion (US$80.06 billion) for 2023.

About RM272.3 billion is allocated for operating expenditure and RM95 billion for development expenditure.

On Monday however, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament, paving the way for the 15th general elections (GE15). 

With the dissolution of parliament, the budget also known as Supply Bill 2023 is now deemed to have lapsed and will have to be retabled once the new government is formed after GE15.

The tabling of the budget just days before parliament was dissolved led to criticisms by many quarters which saw it as a waste of time.  

In its statement, the ministry however said that the tabling of budget 2023 was important so that the ministry could share the various measures that have been planned by the government to help it tackle the short-term challenges faced by the country. 

The budget included many initiatives and programmes to assist segments of the population as well as tax reductions and long term development plans to help the country navigate coming challenges.    

“With the tabling of the 2023 budget, the government can implement it in Jan 2023 as soon as the government has been formed after the 15th general election.

“Additionally, the presentation of the 2023 Budget is also important as a policy reference to business and investment sectors to plan their next steps based on the content of the 2023 Budget, especially with regard to the economic outlook of the country,” the ministry said.

Malaysia’s biggest budget was in 2022 when it was tabled last year at RM332.1 billion. It has since expanded to an estimated RM385.3 billion, after factoring in the fiscal support to protect people and businesses from rising inflation and cost of living.

For 2023, a total of RM55 billion is allocated for government subsidies, aid and incentives.

The ministry added that if Budget 2023 was not tabled, this would only increase the sentiment of uncertainty, and would have negatively impacted investor confidence.

It’s crazy that just months after that incident, they are thinking of holding elections (during this monsoon season). It’s a complete disregard for the lives and livelihoods of thousands of voters,” said the 62-year-old.

“If it floods again (on polling day), I would not risk my health and my life to go cast a ballot,” he added.

THE WORST FLOODING IS YET TO COME: OPPOSITION 

UMNO’s and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition’s calls for an early election have been criticised by the opposition and Mr Ismail Sabri’s own Cabinet members. Malaysia’s Meteorological Department has also warned of heavy rain and floods during the upcoming monsoon season.

Opposition politicians interviewed by CNA noted that sporadic flash floods are already occurring in some areas, a possible sign that the worst is yet to come. 

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) strategy director Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said: “We can all see that the worst part of the monsoon is coming. We have seen the weather transitioning over the last few weeks, and we have already seen the impact to the residents who have experienced flash floods.”  

“It’s pretty straightforward. We cannot postpone the monsoon, but we can postpone the elections,” said the incumbent Member of Parliament for Johor Bahru. 

PKR is part of the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition. 

He added that of the nine states due to hold state elections in tandem with the national polls, six have declined to dissolve their state assemblies. This leaves only three states led by UMNO and BN – Pahang, Perak and Perlis. 

The presidential council of PH said in a statement last Wednesday that the three states controlled by the coalition – Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang – will only dissolve their state assemblies next year due to concerns over floods. 

State assemblies led by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) – Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah – will also not be dissolved if a general election is held soon, said party deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man last Wednesday. 

Ms Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz, deputy president for youth-centric Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), told CNA that the decision to call for elections during this uncertain period was the act of a “cruel government” with no regard for the sufferings of the people. 

She said that if floods were to occur in some areas on polling day, it would be a logistical problem given that polling stations like schools and community centres are likely to double up as relief centres for flood victims. 

“At the end of the day, those who are overworked will be civil servants like the police officers, who may be stretched by balancing flood rescue operations and ensuring that the electoral process runs smoothly,” added the state assemblywoman for the Puteri Wangsa constituency in Johor. 

UMNO’S EARLY POLLS GAMBIT MAY BACKFIRE: ANALYST

UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has consistently maintained that the opposition have been using the flood narrative to resist an early GE15, describing it as a “myth”. 

He noted that in 1999, then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad called for snap polls in November and “it did not become a big issue” at that time. 

In a Facebook post after parliament was dissolved, he wrote: “UMNO and its leadership once again magnanimously returned the mandate to the people to decide on a new government.

“UMNO asked for parliament to be dissolved when the coalition government is at the height of its powers for the benefit and future of the people and the country.

“God willing, this is the right step to give the people the mandate to restore stability and prosperity to Malaysia.”

Mr Ismail Sabri also said that he opted to dissolve parliament in order to prevent disharmony in the Cabinet, after Perikatan Nasional (PN) ministers wrote to the king to voice their objections over holding polls during the monsoon season this year.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat, who is the deputy head overseeing strategy issues for the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network’s Asia headquarters (SDSN-Asia) at Sunway University, acknowledged that there are strategic reasons why UMNO and BN have opted to call for early polls. 

However, he maintained that it is a gamble that could backfire, especially if voters are angered by scenes of floods during the course of campaigning.  

“UMNO may justify the early poll using various reasons such as how the opposition is in disarray and their voters are demoralised now, the coalition government (led by PM Ismail Sabri) is unstable and that the economy will get worse next year,” said Prof Wong. 

“But none of these can be sure to offset the risk of having voters turning against BN for insisting on GE15 amid floods.

KUALA LUMPUR: Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak will not be allowed to go out to campaign during the upcoming general elections as long as he is still serving his jail sentence, said the director of prisons department Nordin Muhammad on Tuesday (Oct 11).

“The situation and regulations are still the same…So long as he is still serving the sentence in prison, he is subject to the Prisons Act and regulations,” Mr Nordin told the media at the launching of an event at the Malaysian Prisons headquarters in Kajang. 

He was commenting on the stand of the Prisons Department if there was an application from Najib’s supporters to give special permission to the Pekan MP to campaign in GE15.

However, Mr Nordin said that apart from the application for Najib to attend parliament sitting which was rejected, the department has not received any other applications from the former prime minister.

Last week, Najib’s lawyer filed a lawsuit against Malaysia’s home minister and the commissioner-general of prison after the prisons department rejected his request to attend the new sessions of parliament before it was dissolved on Monday.  

An election is not due until September 2023, but Mr Ismail Sabri has been under pressure from some factions of his ruling coalition to hold the vote earlier.

In the weeks leading up to the dissolution of parliament, opposition parties criticised the possibility of an early election, arguing that the monsoon season will impede voters’ ability to access polling stations.

On Sep 30, the UMNO supreme council decided that parliament must be dissolved soon so that GE15 can be held this year.

UMNO’s call for an early GE15 has been criticised by the opposition and Mr Ismail Sabri’s own Cabinet members as Malaysia’s Meteorological Department has warned of floods during the north-east monsoon season, which typically starts in November and ends in March.

The presidential council of the main opposition bloc Pakatan Harapan (PH) said in a statement last Wednesday that the three states controlled by the coalition – Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang – will only dissolve their state assemblies next year due to concerns over floods. 

State assemblies led by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) – Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah – will also not be dissolved if a general election is held soon, said party deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man last Wednesday, according to a report by Free Malaysia Today.

PN’s Cabinet ministers sent a letter to the king to voice their objections over holding GE15 this year, Mr Tuan Ibrahim said then.

PN, which comprises Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and PAS, was a component of the ruling coalition together with UMNO-led BN.

KUALA LUMPUR: A special meeting to discuss and set important dates for Malaysia’s 15th general election and the state by-election for Bugaya in Sabah will be held on Oct 20, Bernama reported on Tuesday (Oct 11).

Election Commission (EC) secretary Ikmalrudin Ishak said that the meeting, which will be chaired by commission chairman Abdul Ghani Salleh, will be held at 10am local time at Menara SPR in Putrajaya.

“EC chairman will chair the meeting on the important dates pertaining to the GE15 and Bugaya by-election, such as the writ of election, dates of nomination and polling, electoral roll to be used and other preparations for the two elections,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.

He said that a press conference will be held immediately after the meeting.

On Monday, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of parliament after receiving consent from the king, paving the way for the general election.

“With this announcement, the mandate is returned to the people,” he said in a televised address.

“The people’s mandate is a powerful antidote for the country to achieve political stability and create a strong, stable and respected government after GE15.”

“Our candidates for elections will be clean and not have been involved in any scandals or misdeeds, crimes such as stealing money. Morally also they are very correct and stick to the rule of law. And respect the system of democracy in the country,” he added.

Dr Mahathir also said that if BN wins the GE15, its first move will be to ask for a royal pardon for former prime minister Najib Razak and to drop all court charges against UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. 

“If they win and form the government, their first objective is not the welfare (of the people) or the floods … all those things are minor. Najib must be released and pardoned, Zahid Hamidi’s charges will be dropped,” he said. 

Najib is serving a 12-year jail sentence after the Federal Court upheld his conviction on Aug 23 for a 1MDB-linked corruption case, while Ahmad Zahid is now facing a separate case involving 47 charges of criminal breach of trust, corruption and money laundering. 

Dr Mahathir also explained that as the Malay movement Gerakan Tanah Air has yet to be registered, all candidates will run under the Pejuang banner.

Gerakan Tanah Air was launched in August. It comprises four political parties including the National Indian Muslim Alliance Party (Iman), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Parti Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (Berjasa) and Pejuang. It also includes NGOs, academicians and individuals.

On Monday, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob declared the Malaysian parliament dissolved in a televised address, after receiving consent from the king. 

“With this announcement, the mandate is returned to the people,” he said. 

“The people’s mandate is a powerful antidote for the country to achieve political stability and create a strong, stable and respected government after GE15 (15th General Election).”